Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 203.454766 246.215056 298.854702 369.521089 463.632896 5.872358e+02 7.663652e+02
2025-06-29 154.848552 204.557139 273.595206 380.206265 548.049181 8.165068e+02 1.313033e+03
2025-07-06 124.685658 174.318142 249.001010 376.222230 603.152973 1.028575e+03 2.006697e+03
2025-07-13 112.520714 165.449303 251.107120 411.255553 734.909066 1.454242e+03 3.596442e+03
2025-07-20 102.722052 157.415753 251.479229 442.134369 873.943695 2.007823e+03 6.497791e+03
2025-07-27 93.993254 149.045616 248.687333 465.317931 1009.495895 2.690418e+03 1.181527e+04
2025-08-03 85.961118 140.223096 242.740159 479.549282 1132.591014 3.491301e+03 2.165760e+04
2025-08-10 78.364082 130.818231 233.493720 483.148171 1230.363224 4.354189e+03 3.957726e+04
2025-08-17 70.882164 120.455077 220.204137 472.823888 1281.382796 5.118790e+03 6.887050e+04
2025-08-24 64.369177 111.054013 207.234648 459.599780 1317.230856 5.903073e+03 1.230125e+05
2025-08-31 58.753227 102.705141 195.142911 445.429453 1343.593564 6.724660e+03 2.314446e+05
2025-09-07 57.646096 103.270228 203.026629 489.935271 1637.179080 1.040401e+04 1.684799e+06
2025-09-14 53.963180 98.209465 197.427720 494.462944 1774.295408 1.352356e+04 1.977795e+07
2025-09-21 51.346384 95.100223 196.031966 512.354900 2001.014324 1.930878e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 47.909062 89.788921 188.273417 506.842094 2103.370095 2.440195e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 47.244605 90.523620 196.060277 558.870239 2621.107863 4.619168e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 46.238619 90.341143 201.423779 605.159689 3195.732590 9.120460e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 44.836366 89.051114 203.521555 640.186685 3769.399394 1.835070e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 43.107523 86.772953 202.410616 661.802831 4288.538194 3.706039e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 41.079419 83.543787 197.981024 667.282895 4675.162109 7.153092e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 38.698292 79.210884 189.598798 651.576970 4805.683708 1.150361e+06 NaN
2025-11-16 36.423036 74.944870 180.854099 631.526452 4862.483569 1.797880e+06 NaN
2025-11-23 34.314052 70.920942 172.339690 610.125757 4878.013975 2.801213e+06 NaN